Modeling population dynamics of a tea pest with temperature-dependent development: predicting emergence timing and potential damage

The tea leaf roller, Caloptilia theivora Walsingham (Lepidoptera: Gracillariinae), is one of the serious pests of tea plants in Japan. To understand the mechanism of seasonal occurrence of this insect pest, we developed a population dynamics model that explicitly incorporates the temperature-dependent development of the pest. The model predictions were compared with observed captures in pheromone traps at the experimental site of the Kagoshima Tea Experiment Research Station in Japan. The results showed that the emergence timing of the insect pest observed in the field was determined primarily by temperature. The relationship between the timing of adult emergence and the leaf damage level was also studied using a logistic regression model. The infestation level decreased as the interval between the adult peak emergence date and the date of tea plucking increased, implying that asynchrony between plant phenology and emergence of the insect pest is a critical factor reducing damage level. We examined how the damage level changes according to global warming. Increased temperature made the timing of insect appearance forward and enhance asynchrony of plant–pest phenology. Therefore, reduction of damage level by the insect pest is expected under global warming.     

河北唐海湿地四种鹭的种群动态和繁殖空间生态位

2004年8月—2005年7月对河北唐海湿地夜鹭(Nycticoraxnycticorax)、白鹭(Egtettagarzetta)、池鹭(Ardeolabacchus)、大白鹭(Casmerodiusalbus)的种群动态和繁殖行为进行了观察,并对巢群关系进行了研究。统计了4种鹭垂直和水平巢位的巢密度,计算了不同种鹭巢的生态位重叠、生态位宽度值。结果4种鹭在唐海数量最多月份为4—9月,最大量达到了近5800只。共有Ⅰ、Ⅱ两个巢区,迁来Ⅱ区时间较Ⅰ区晚半个月左右。除池鹭外,3种鹭之间均有争巢现象,后期趋于稳定。迫于密度压力和竞争,部分白鹭和池鹭取食范围较广。除大白鹭外,其他3种鹭同种间均有混交现象。在混巢区,夜鹭迁来最早,数量最大,为优势种,多数占据中心区的顶巢;大白鹭数量最少,亦占据中心区的顶巢;白鹭迁来较晚,占据中位巢;池鹭迁来最晚,数量较白鹭少,多数在边缘区单独筑巢,少数在中心区占下位巢。白鹭巢的垂直生态位最宽;夜鹭巢的水平生态位最宽;池鹭巢的综合空间生态位最宽。池鹭和夜鹭巢位的空间格局最为相似,池鹭和白鹭的生态位重叠较大。夜鹭的数量最多、大白鹭的个体最大,导致其处于优势;白鹭和池鹭数量少、个体小,导致其处于劣势。唐海湿地内丰富的食物和适宜的林带是鹭鸟密度较大的主要原因。此外,鹭类只筑巢在散布的、双行杨树林带均高为22m以上区域,是该地鹭类巢区的主要特点。     

Effects of Fragmentation of Evergreen Broad-leaved Forests on Genetic Diversity of Ardisia Crenata var. Bicolor (Myrsinaceae)

Due to the long generation times and high densities, dominant tree species usually did not respond consistently with theoretical predictions to the recent fragmentation. Genetic structures of shrubs and herbs, especially those with low densities, may be more sensitive to forest fragmentation. We studied the genetic structure of a self-compatible subshrub, Ardisia crenata var. bicolor (Myrsinaceae) in a recently fragmented landscape. Ten RAPD primers used for analysis generated a total of 76 bands. We found that A. c. var. bicolor had relatively low species-level (P₉₅ = 63.2%; H = 0.106; Shannon diversity index (SI) = 0.246) and within-population diversity (P₉₅ = 5.3−46.1%; H = 0.026−0.175; SI = 0.032−0.253), and significant population differentiation (G_ST = 0.445). Significantly positive relationships were found between measures of diversity (P₉₅, H and SI) and the log of estimated population size. No significant relationship was observed between Nei's genetic distance and spatial distance of pairwise populations, indicating no isolation-by-distance. Given most species of forests are shrubs and herbs with short generation times, our observation indicated that distinct genetic consequences of recent fragmentation may be expected for quite a number of plant species.     

Patterns of Rodent Species Diversity and Abundance in a Kenyan Relict Tropical Rainforest

Patterns of rodent species abundance and diversity were examined over a 5 months period in two areas of a Kenyan relict tropical rainforest. The two areas are subjected to different administrations which lead to various levels of anthropogenic disturbance: one can be considered relatively disturbed and one relatively undisturbed. Anthropogenic disturbance causes a reduction in woody stem density between 0 and 1.5 m and reduced understory tree canopy cover. Rodent abundance was estimated using the program CAPTURE and compared with the number of individuals actually captured. Density was estimated with three different methods, two of these utilised a boundary strip to estimate effective size of the area trapped. Density resulted in being relatively high in both areas, so population might have been at a peak. Species richness was higher in the disturbed forest, while species diversity and evenness was higher in the undisturbed forest. We suggest that in the disturbed forest the increase in number of species might be due to sporadical entrance in the forest by non-forest species, while the decrease in diversity might be due to the decrease of lower strata vegetation that occurs in the disturbed forest, hence this factor might affect species equitability. Bibliographic data supports this hypothesis as rodent species diversity and ground vegetation cover have been found to be correlated.     

Influence of Habitat Fragmentation on the Genetic Variability in Leaf Litter Ant Populations in Tropical Rainforests of Sabah, Borneo

Two ant species, Odontomachus rixosus and Pheidole annexus, were studied in the tropical rainforests of Sabah, Malaysia, North Borneo, to analyze the impact of habitat fragmentation on the genetic diversity and population structure of ant populations using RAPD-fingerprinting. Ants were sampled in a contiguous (43,800 ha) and three patches of primary rainforests of varying size (4294, 146 and 20 ha) that were fragmented about 40 years ago. We found a decrease in genetic variability for both species in the fragmented populations compared to the contiguous. Genetic distances between populations resembled the geographical arrangement of populations and can be explained by an effect of isolation by distance. A high degree in population subdivision suggests a lack of meta-population dynamics due to a shortage of gene flow between populations, possibly the result of the high degree of habitat isolation by oil palm plantations. Although the results of this study are limited due to low replication this is the first data on genetic patterns of insect populations in fragmented rainforests and should be seen as starting point for future research. The value of small to medium sized protection areas for conservation needs to be carefully evaluated in the context of this study, as even relatively large areas (4294 ha) may not prevent the critical loss of genetic variability and guarantee long-term survival of organisms.     

Viability and Management of an Endangered Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) Metapopulation in the Jura Mountains, Western Switzerland

The populations of Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus), the largest European grouse, have seriously declined during the last century over most of their distribution in western and central Europe. In the Jura mountains, the relict population is now isolated and critically endangered (about 500 breeding adults). We developed a simulation software (TetrasPool) that accounts for age and spatial structure as well as stochastic processes, to perform a viability analysis and explore management scenarios for this population, capitalizing on a 24 years-long series of field data. Simulations predict a marked decline and a significant extinction risk over the next century, largely due to environmental and demographic stochasticity (average values of life-history parameters would otherwise allow stability). Variances among scenarios mainly stem from uncertainties about the shape and intensity of density dependence. Uncertainty analyses suggest to focus conservation efforts on enhancing, not only adult survival (as often advocated for long-lived species), but also recruitment. The juvenile stage matters when local populations undergo extinctions, because it ensures connectivity and recolonization. Besides limiting human perturbations, a silvicultural strategy aimed at opening forest structure should improve the quality and surface of available patches, independent of their size and localization. Such measures are to be taken urgently, if the population is to be saved.     

Seasonality in neotropical populations of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera): resource availability and migration

The present study aimed to verify (1) whether seasonal increases in neotropical populations of Plutella xylostella are directly provoked by regular influxes of migrants, and (2) whether temporal variation in food availability is the ecological process behind such predictable events. Over 3 years, plants that P. xylostella prefers were cultivated and irrigated in order to provide a continuous and abundant supply of food. Nevertheless, seasonal oscillations in the population of the herbivore still occurred. The hypothesis of seasonal availability of host plants could not explain the population pattern. In April, when the insect was practically extinct from the area, an artificial infestation (immigration) with 10,000 pupae established a precocious population. Therefore, the start of the natural cycles of population growth, during July–August, seems to be due to external factors, rather than an improvement in local conditions for resident individuals. In the beginning of the natural cycles, the increase in the density of adults significantly preceded the increase in immatures. Plutella xylostella does not diapause, and therefore immigration is the proximate cause of the seasonal population increases. Hypotheses about local factors are suggested to explain the decreasing phase of the predictable population cycles.     

MarkerML – Marker Feature Identification in Metagenomic Datasets Using Interpretable Machine Learning

Identification of environment specific marker-features is one of the key objectives of many metagenomic studies. It aims to identify such features in microbiome datasets that may serve as markers of the contrasting or comparable states. Hypothesis testing and black-box machine learnt models which are conventionally used for identification of these features are generally not exhaustive, especially because they generally do-not provide any quantifiable relevance (context) of/between the identified features. We present MarkerML web-server, that seeks to leverage the emergence of interpretable machine learning for facilitating the contextual discovery of metagenomic features of interest. It does so through a comprehensive and automated application of the concept of Shapley Additive Explanations in companionship to the compositionality accounted hypothesis testing for the multi-variate microbiome datasets. MarkerML not only helps in identification of marker-features, but also enables insights into the role and inter-dependence of the identified features in driving the decision making of the supervised machine learnt model. Generation of high quality and intuitive visualizations spanning prediction effect plots, model performance reports, feature dependency plots, Shapley and abundance informed cladograms (Sungrams), hypothesis tested violin plots along-with necessary provisions for excluding the participant bias and ensuring reproducibility of results, further seek to make the platform a useful asset for the scientists in the field of microbiome (and even beyond). The MarkerML web-server is freely available for the academic community at https://microbiome.igib.res.in/markerml/.     

肺癌气道播散的研究概况

2015年,世界卫生组织对肺癌的分类提出了气道播散(spread through air spaces,STAS)的概念,作为肺腺癌侵袭的新模式。STAS指的是肺癌细胞在肺实质内经气道播散到肿瘤主灶边缘以外。近年来,随着对STAS研究的深入,研究结果表明STAS作为一种侵袭方式与其他侵袭行为和转移有关。STAS与肺癌的预后存在密切联系,并且与复发的风险独立相关。而选择的手术方式不同,STAS阳性患者的预后大不相同。在影像学方面,STAS有着其特殊的影像学特征,这些影像学特征可以作为STAS可能性估计的工具。因此能否通过影像学等方法判断出是否有STAS存在对选择手术方式和改善患者预后有重要指导意义。这篇综述将重点阐述近年来STAS在与不同类型肺癌的联系、影像学、基因突变等方面的研究概况。     

冰川退缩地15种丛藓科植物茎的比较结构学观察

应用石蜡切片和扫描电镜方法对一号冰川退缩地生长的15种丛藓科植物茎的结构及表面微形态特征进行观察,结果表明：该地区的15种丛藓科植物的茎分为具中轴和无中轴两类,其细胞壁均有不同程度的加厚。而具中轴的丛藓科植物的茎又分为表皮、皮部、中轴三部分,茎表皮细胞短,1层,细胞壁大多向外突出,表面粗糙,表面纹饰多为颗粒状;皮部所占面积最大,大部分有内、外皮部的分化,大多数种的细胞壁由外向内逐渐变薄,细胞由小到大整齐排列;中轴所占的面积也不同,其细胞壁多具角隅加厚;而没有中轴分化的种类,其各自细胞壁加厚的程度基本一致。